Last week, Horace Dediu, writing at Asymco, posted an adept assessment of the difference between “observation” and “prediction”.
It’s that time of year when predictions come out in full force, so it is refreshing and instructive to read something that calls for a more flexible approach. Better yet, it calls for collaboration.
One thing I would add to Dediu’s observations: predictions work best when the future looks a lot like the present, or the past. In more fluid environments, collective observation can play a critical role.
That argues for a change in our approach to more than just predictions. It’s not a case of “no future” in publishing, just not the future we might have predicted.